Information, they say, rules the world today. With many clues left by IRCC, it could be predicted that a huge pool of 5,000 candidates or more is on its way. The past applicant invites data shows this explicitly. Canada is even set to welcome more immigrants too from now till next year too. July 6, 2022 will continue to be a date for reference in regards to the recommencement of Express Entry pools for all programs including Federal Skilled Worker (FSW), Federal Skilled Trades (FST), Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and Provincial Nomination (PNP) programs…
Information, they say, rules the world today. With many clues left by IRCC, it could be predicted that a huge pool of 5,000 candidates or more is on its way. The past applicant invites data shows this explicitly. Canada is even set to welcome more immigrants too from now till next year too. July 6, 2022 will continue to be a date for reference in regards to the recommencement of Express Entry pools for all programs including Federal Skilled Worker (FSW), Federal Skilled Trades (FST), Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and Provincial Nomination (PNP) programs.
Background historical metrics
Invitations to apply for permanent residence under the Express Entry system seem to have some interesting underlying patterns even though they look unpredictable at times. Nonetheless, we always try to bring out the salient pointers that we notice throughout the history and years of immigration. To begin with, the 2 weeks interval through which IRCC issues invitation has proven to be more of a benefit for us in estimating the number of candidates that could be selected from now till at least 2 – 3 months into the future. In our past article, we shared our predictions about the upcoming Canadian immigration invitations slated for this month and the month of October. Kindly check it out now!
Longer forecast projections
In this writeup, my intention is to go beyond a quarterly prediction to a more robust 6-months or biannual forecast. The month of September promises a 250-500 increase in the number of candidates selected by IRCC to relocate to Canada within the next 6 months. From October to March 2023, it has been predicted that the pools would have normalized to the pre-standards prior to the Covid-19 pandemic era. That is, the average of 3,000 – 3,500 would be the norm for the “no-program specified” draws.More of our own predictions
There has been no news update from IRCC stating what we are about to release but with the previous draws from the Express Entry pool, we are quite convinced that the insights we draw from them are no coincidence or mere random chance. The probability of having a grandeur draw far outweighs that of regular small incremental ones. In order to put this into perspective, let us look into some historical figures from the IRCC website.
Some Past Selection Records
From the draws of the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), if we are looking at them backwardly, we would note that in June 2021 up until February 2021, there was a steady invitation of above 5,000 candidates on a fortnight basis for about 7 times in a roll before a more grandiose selection which exceeded 27,000 candidates at once. This was due to the halt in picking FSWP candidates and the travel restrictions laid on foreign travelers though.All Programs’ Selections
If we take a step further, it could be seen that on December 2020 before the hiatus in the “No Program Specified” draws, IRCC dutifully picked 5,000 candidates for the last 2 months of that year after issuing ranges of 4,000 invitations for October and September of that year. Hopefully, I think you would see where our analytics ideas are coming from. It is debatable that 5,000+ invitations would not occur since it did not happen in 2021, 2019 or other previous years, however the increasing need for immigrants to fill the close to 1 million vacant jobs may back it up.
Additional Reasons
If we look at the spectrum of things beyond mere Invitations To Apply (ITAs), we may conclude in favor of expecting the massive draws anytime soon. The CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 29, 2022 states that candidates with CRS score range of 601-1200 have reduced to 466, the number of candidates in the 501-600 bracket is still a whooping sum of 7,224, those of 491-500 range are 5,554, the 481-490 group is still about 9,242 while the normal selected range of 471-480 amass 19,033 candidates and counting. In all, 41,519 candidates are within 471 – 480 whilst 22,486 candidates are between 481 – 1,200 points ranges.Explanations and Interpretations
The numbers quoted above just show some facts about the current situation of Canada immigration. To begin with, many qualified applicants are already in the pipeline, increasing their CRS points and more are even being added on a weekly basis. To buttress, the dilemma of post-pandemic periods has left the pool to be on a high as compared to pre-pandemic times. Thus, for the pool to return to its normal ranges of CRS scores and invitation numbers, there has to be a drastic decision taken by the immigration minister either in favor of the candidates or not.
Kudos to Sean Fraser
The minister has tried in gradually bringing back the Express Entry pools to limelight as compared to his predecessors. Instead of just scrapping the candidates in the pool and starting afresh as was done sometimes back in the history of Canadian immigration, he has proven to be up to the task by putting resources and personnel to combat the issues of backlog and processing delays. Yet, he has not mentioned in any of his talks or speeches that there would be a massive selection of candidates as we are predicting even though we are of the view that this would happen soon enough. Just get prepared for your own immigration to Canada with these steps.Effects of New TEER System and Bill C-19
As from November 2022, the Canadian immigration eligibility criteria may be changing for the better. Therefore, our prediction suggests that, in line with these incoming changes, there would be a huge selection of candidates on the premise of their occupation type (like those in the IT, healthcare, construction, finance industries), their language proficiency levels (for French language only or with English too) and the available vacancies in provinces and territories across Canada. These massive invitations should come around the tale end of this year or early months of last year; that is November, December, January or February as the case maybe.
How to Prepare Yourself
Information is not useful to you if you do not make use of it. So, if you are looking to moving to Canada in the near future, you can be getting your documents ready, apply for our pre-evaluation process, start preparing for your English and/or French language tests with our prep classes, send your academic certificates to Canada for assessment, get ahead with provincial nomination and practically be involved in the process of your application for permanent residency to Canada by yourself or with your chosen agent. Contact us on +2348107714449 or send us an email via admin@aosacademy.com or visit our bureau @ https://aosacademy.com/migration-agency.